Can Kamala Harris Overcome the VP Curse? | Opinion

Vice presidents get a bum rap and sometimes the bum’s rush. Thomas Marshall, Woodrow Wilson’s VP, quipped, “Once there were two brothers. One ran away to sea; the other was elected vice president of the United States. And nothing was heard of either of them again.” Kidding aside, nine of our 45 chief executives have died or resigned, so the odds are 20 percent that a vice president could become president.
For the first time in nearly a quarter-century, we have an incumbent vice president, Kamala Harris, running for the presidency. Not since Al Gore narrowly lost to George W. Bush in 2000 has the sitting vice president vied for the Oval Office. Second place has been the most frequent finish for those second in command when they have run for chief executive in the modern era. Does vice-presidential service curse candidates?
After Vice President Martin Van Buren’s 1836 victory, no incumbent VP garnered the presidency until George H. W. Bush did so in 1988. A quartet of sitting or former vice presidents had tried and failed in the previous quarter-century:
Only two past or present vice presidents ran for president between 1924 (Calvin Coolidge) and 1960 (Harry Truman in 1948). Both had assumed the office upon their presidents’ deaths and then won a full term. Lyndon Johnson followed suit with his win in 1964 after becoming president upon John F. Kennedy’s assassination.
Likewise, Theodore Roosevelt won his own term in 1904 after rising to the presidency after William McKinley’s 1901 assassination. He sought the office again in 1912 as a third-party candidate against incumbent Republican William Howard Taft, but only succeeded in fracturing the GOP and handing the White House over to Wilson.
Why have Veeps (a term coined by the grandson of Truman’s vice president, Alben Barkley) fared so poorly in striving for the top job?
George H. W. Bush, however, overcame these traps. A golden résumé and following a popular president were definite assets. But he was not close enough to Reagan’s brand of conservatism to win reelection in 1992, especially after Pat Buchanan’s right-wing nomination challenge.
Vice presidents since Gore have faced unique circumstances. President Joe Biden skipped the 2016 contest following his son’s tragic death. Barack Obama’s support for Hillary Clinton posed another obstacle, but Biden came back to win in 2020. Vice President Mike Pence’s challenges in running for the nomination in 2024 included former President Donald Trump’s takeover of the GOP and his criticism of Pence for not overturning the 2020 election. Dick Cheney, chosen in 2000 by George W. Bush for his seniority and vast Washington experience, was correctly presumed not to have presidential aspirations.
What does history bode for Vice President Kamala Harris? Biden chose her to balance the 2020 ticket by her race, ethnicity, gender, age, geographical roots, and more liberal ideology. Opponents denigrate her as a “DEI” selection who is too liberal. Harris also has to answer for her president’s unpopular policies on inflation and immigration. Her defense of him may repel some voters.
On the plus side, Biden’s exit and immediate endorsement of Harris, resulting in Democratic Party unity that avoided a bruising nomination battle, led to a nearly flawless convention. A winning debate performance against Trump, and Harris’s gender, which brings compelling authenticity to her arguments on abortion policies and reproductive health, may attract votes. Whether these positive events and attributes can overcome the “VP curse” remains unknown.
Dr. Barbara A. Perry is the J. Wilson Newman Professor and Co-Chair of the Presidential Oral History Program at UVA’s Miller Center.
The views expressed in this article are the writer’s own.